Ken Livingstone and George Smitherman

I am disappointed in the election results from London, England. Labour Mayor Ken Livingstone lost and conservative Conservative Boris Johnson won. I wanted Livingstone to win. He was centre-left but I like him in particular because he has consistently been opposed to the Iraq War. The result is also disappointing because Livingstone was already planning to run for another term in 2012. Livingstone has conceded defeat but ominously said that he wants to be mayor when the 2012 Olympics happen. That would mean challenging Johnson in 2012. But ousting a one-term incumbent would be difficult. Livingstone’s political career thus may sadly be over.

Another interesting fact relating to mayors is that there are rumours that Ontario Health Minister George Smitherman wants to run for Toronto mayor in 2010. The idea is that Smitherman is actually considering challenging David Miller. I am actually concerned by this. Not because of David Miller. Miller’s second term as mayor has been problematic. Nevertheless, for Smitherman to run for mayor would require for him to resign his seat at Queen’s Park. It would also mean he would have to resign his cabinet position. In fact Smitherman might have to resign his cabinet position early. Nominations open in January 2010. If Smitherman were serious about running for mayor, he’d have to register early in order to mount a credible campaign. Doing a year-long campaign for mayor while being a cabinet minister is out the question. Therefore Smitherman would have to resign his cabinet position early in the year. I expect that he would also be under pressure to resign his seat at Queen’s Park early in the year as well. The reason for this is that it would be assumed that he would rarely attend legislative sessions while out campaigning for mayor. In any event Smitherman would have to resign his legislative seat before the municipal filing deadline. Failing to resign his seat before the municipal filing deadline would make his name be removed from the list of municipal candidates. Any such resignation would create a by-election in Toronto Centre. Sadly Toronto Centre isn’t as strong a Liberal seat provincially as it is federally. In the recent federal Toronto Centre by-election, Bob Rae got 59% of the vote. However in the recent provincial election, Smitherman received only 47% of the vote, compared to 20% for the Tories and 18% for the NDP. PC leader John Tory lives in Toronto Centre. Thus if he hasn’t managed to get a seat by then Tory could run in Toronto Centre. I think a Toronto Centre provincial by-election should be avoided if possible and therefore I have reservations about Smitherman running for mayor. But that choice is Smitherman’s to make and I would encourage him to think it over carefully.