All about Ontario politics

It is frustrating how many by-elections the Ontario Liberals lost in the past term. The Liberals fielded candidates in all 10 by-elections this past term but lost every single by-election except two. The Liberals retained two suburban ridings in by-elections: Scarborough—Rouge River and Markham. The Liberals failed to gain from the Tories the suburban ridings of Nepean-Carleton, Whitby-Ajax, or Burlington. The Liberals failed to gain from the Tories the rural riding of Dufferin-Peel-Wellington-Grey. The Liberals failed to pick up from the NDP the urban riding of Toronto-Danforth. When the urban Liberal-held ridings of Hamilton East, Parkdale—High Park, and York South—Weston were vacated, the Liberals lost all three to the NDP. That’s a bad record considering all the opportunities there were to win in York South—Weston, Parkdale—High Park, Hamilton East, and even Whitby-Ajax. The Liberals put their best effort in the 3 March 2006 by-elections but ended up coming up short in all 3. In Whitby-Ajax the Liberals came within 3.8% of winning but it was close but no cigar. The 2006 Parkdale-High Park by-election the Liberals blundered big time by acting vulnerable on the issue of education, running a disorganized campaign, and attacking the NDP candidate with a controversial personal attack campaign that backfired badly. Instead the Liberals should have only talked about welfare, health care and education. In the 2007 by-elections, the Liberals tried their best in Burlington but Burlington proved too Conservative a riding, although they still managed a good 40%+ showing. In York South-Weston, the Liberals dropped over 20 points to just above 40%, just behind the NDP candidate. The Liberals lost out because of the unresolved and polarizing issue of a $10 minimum wage. This was an issue that the NDP ran on and won on in the poor riding of York South—Weston. I fully agree with the government’s plan to slowly raise the minimum wage past $10 per hour. I agree with those who argue that an immediate increase to $10 per hour would have a negative effect on the economy. In Markham, the Liberals managed to win a by-election for a change. Unfortunately, Markham’s result was the exception, not the norm.

However, I calculated and found that the Liberals easily won the popular vote if you add up the results of the 3 2007 by-elections with about 42% or by about 10 points. This is an improvement to the 2006 popular vote by-election results which the Tories narrowly won. And the truth is, for all the talk of there being dissatisfaction in the McGuinty government, in February at least there was enough satisfaction to give the Liberals above 40% in all 3 by-elections. There may be more satisfaction with the McGuinty government out there then people are giving credit for. I would attribute the recent close polls mostly to the controversies surrounding the OLG and grants to immigrant groups. I also think that there is a correlation between poll results at the federal and provincial level. My theory is that when Stephen Harper’s popularity goes up, McGuinty’s popularity goes down. Conversely, when Stephen Harper’s popularity goes down, McGuinty’s popularity goes up. And there is evidence that John Tory suffers from Stephen Harper. A recent Ian Urquhart article describes the fact that Mr. Urquhart recently went canvassing alongside both Education Minister Kathleen Wynne and Tory leader John Tory in the riding of Don Valley West. When Tory was canvassing, this sometimes happened: “But – and this is a potential problem for Tory province-wide – several residents questioned him about stands taken by Prime Minister Stephen Harper. He pointed out to them that Harper represents a different level of government and, indeed, a different party.” That just proves my point about the fact that people associate John Tory with Stephen Harper and thus Tory’s popularity waxes and wanes along with Harper’s. If Tory came to my door, I’d make the Stephen Harper connection. When Tory points out about the different level of government and different parties, I make connections between the two Tory parties. After all, it is obviously John Tory that Harper endorses to be Premier.

Speaking of John Tory, Tory is proposing to provide funding to private religious schools. Firstly, out of curiosity, I wonder whether this funding would be extended to private Catholic schools when there is already a publicly funded Catholic school system. Secondly, this is a divisive can of worms. If Tory is to come up with millions of new dollars to give money to private schools, I think that money would be better spent improving the existing publicly funded school system. Unfortunately this proposal takes away potential money from the existing system and blurs the distinctions between public and private schools. Personally I find it is duplicative to have a public and publicly funded Catholic system, but I do not favor the sweeping change and constitutional amendments required to merge the two systems. I looked at the comments on the article about this on the Globe and Mail website and found mostly comments against Tory’s proposal. I prefer we better fund the existing system and not divide the province any more on religious grounds than we already are doing.