Outremont

I never thought I’d say this but I am concerned that the Liberals could lose the Montreal riding of Outremont to the NDP. The NDP is running the very high-profile candidate Thomas Mulcair. Mulcair does not live in Outremont and has never represented it. However, he is high-profile because he until recently represented a Laval riding in the National Assembly for the Quebec Liberals and was previously Jean Charest’s Environment Minister. Mulcair seemed to disagree with the more right-wing aspects of Charest’s premiership such as the privatization of Mont Orford Park. When Charest tried to demote Mulcair (presumably due to these differences) to Government Service Minister, Mulcair refused this position and returned to the backbenches. In the 2007 election, he did not run again. After retiring from provincial politics, all 3 of Canada’s major federalist parties wanted him to join them and run for their respective party. Despite Mulcair’s apparent left-leaning nature, it appears even the Tories wanted him to run for them and the possibility of Mulcair being a Tory candidate was occasionally discussed. However, Mulcair opted instead to join the New Democratic Party and become Jack Layton’s Quebec lieutenant. Why he couldn’t have simply run for the Liberals instead I’m not sure. Notre-Dame-de-Grace Montreal councilor Marcel Tremblay was supposed to be the Tory candidate for the Outremont by-election. Tremblay’s ward doesn’t cover any part of Outremont but he would be high-profile because he is the Montreal mayor’s brother. The Tories apparently heavily courted Tremblay. More recently it appears that Tremblay is not running and plans to continue working on Montreal’s municipal issues. The Tories thus still have yet to announce a candidate for Outremont. The Liberals also have not announced a candidate, although it is supposed to be some kind of star candidate. Some think Dion will simply appoint a female candidate into the riding. But the Liberals have been very tight-lipped and so any speculation on who the Liberal candidate will be is merely guesswork. The Bloc recently nominated some low-profile candidate. I am currently hoping to goodness that the Liberals nominate someone who can match Mulcair’s profile. Otherwise Mulcair could actually win a Quebec riding for the NDP, something that would prove disastrous for the Liberals both short term and long term. Outremont is an Allophone and Anglophone riding that also has a significant French-speaking population. I’d also say that Outremont has a core sovereigntist vote of the mid-20% range. Keeping in mind that the NDP is a federalist party, I have difficulty seeing the BQ vote going much below 25%. I’m guessing that the NDP under Mulcair could get as much as 30% of the vote. In the previous general election the NDP got 17% in Outremont and that is bound to increase with Mulcair. If the vote splits enough, Mulcair could win with 30%. Whether the Liberals could get above that 30% and still take first place all depends on how well the Tories do and how well the Greens do. It all remains to be seen and I am frustrated that I do not know who the Liberal candidate is so that I could better evaluate Liberal chances.