Happy New Year!

I would just like to wish the entire world a happy new year! This greeting encompasses my political opponents. Happy new year to everyone including my political opponents. All the best to everyone in 2008!

Larry O'Brien and Jim Jones

Recently, Ottawa Mayor Larry O’Brien was charged by the OPP with attempted bribery. O’Brien allegedly attempted to bribe a rival candidate to drop out of the mayoral race in exchange for certain items – one of which was allegedly an appointment to the National Parole Board of Canada, to be done by the Conservative government. This allegation got federal Environment Minister John Baird caught up in the controversy. Several Liberals called for Baird’s resignation in Question Period before the holidays. However, the OPP has said they no longer have any investigative interest in Baird. Baird has also always been clear that no such appointment was ever discussed with anyone. I am a Liberal, but I am willing to give Baird the benefit of the doubt. Because O’Brien is innocent until proven guilty, I feel he may stay on as mayor as long as he is not found guilty. If found guilty, he may feel compelled to resign. In such a case he may be required to resign depending on the severity of his sentence. If O’Brien resigns in 2008, there is still time for a by-election for the Ottawa mayoralty. If there is a by-election, I would want the runner-up from the 2006 race, Alex Munter, to run. I’d expect him to be the frontrunner in such a race unless one of the city councilors was to run. If councilors were to run in a by-election, it would give them a unique opportunity to run for mayor without putting their council seats on the line. In a regular election, councilors cannot run simultaneously for council and mayor. But at the same time councilors are not required to resign their existing council positions to run for mayor. In a mayoral by-election, councilors could retain their seats while running and only have to give up their council seats if elected mayor.

Mentioning this topic compels me to mention a slightly similar situation that has occurred in my home town of Markham, Ontario. Markham Regional Councilor Jim Jones pled guilty to assault on November 22 for an assault that occurred in February of this year. Mr. Jones grabbed a maid at a hotel in Niagara-on-the-Lake where he was staying for a Town Council retreat. Jones was lying on his bed. Jones said “Kiss me” to the maid and grabbed her without permission. The maid left the room shocked and called police. The police came and charged Jones with sexual assault. The charge was later downgraded to regular assault which Jones pled guilty to. Jones states that what he did was a major error in judgment. Jones was given a year’s worth of probation and several hours of community service as a sentence. Markham Town Council in response to Jones’ conviction requested Jones’ resignation as a councilor. Jones refused to resign. Town Council did however accept Jones’ resignation as Markham Deputy Mayor. The Town also stripped Jones of all committee chairmanships. The Town asked the Regional Council to take similar disciplinary action. Indications are that some councilors are now going to feel uncomfortable working with Jones in light of his conviction. Markham now has no Deputy Mayor but Regional Councilor Jack Heath stands to become Deputy Mayor because he received the second most number of votes in the 2006 Regional Council election. Since Jones was innocent until proven guilty, the Town did not request his resignation until after he was convicted. I believe that was the proper way to go about it. In this day and age, unwanted kissing and grabbing are serious matters. Jones should consider what is best and resign if he feels that his continued presence on council will make things too awkward.

I feel that Jones conviction has essentially ended Jones political career. In the 2010 election, I do not think Jones could get the most number of votes for Regional Council let alone the fourth most number of votes for the 4 spot election. But our political system allows Jones to continue in office until December 2010. He can then choose to not run for re-election if he wants to avoid a likely defeat. Whether he runs again or not, he will be eligible for a severance package in either defeat or retirement.


In conclusion, I hold out hope that Alex Munter or someone progressive like him can become the next Mayor of Ottawa.

Westmount—Ville-Marie and other ridings

My previous post discusses Westmount—Ville-Marie. The latest rumor is that a municipal councilor will run for the NDP in Westmount—Ville-Marie. I think municipal councilors may have a greater success rate in Quebec than in Ontario when it comes to seeking higher office. Recent examples of Ontario municipal politicians seeking higher office have had mixed results. At most, municipal councilors in Ontario only have about a 50/50 chance of succeeding at winning higher office. For example, the very popular David Shiner went down to a decisive defeat in Willowdale in the recent provincial election. However, Liberal Joe Dickson, who was an Ajax councilor, won a decisive victory in Ajax—Pickering. There was the occasional Green candidate who was a municipal councilor and they all went down to defeat. A Cornwall councilor, Tory Chris Savard, went down to a 10-point defeat in Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry was by far the strongest Tory riding federally to go Liberal provincially in the 2007 provincial election. I always thought this riding would go Liberal in the provincial election, but the strong Tory federal results made Milton Chan at electionprediction.com think otherwise and thus Chan predicted a Tory win in the riding. I was glad when the Liberals won Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry. It keeps Cornwall’s Liberal streak going provincially. Cornwall has been represented by a Liberal provincially continuously since 1987. Prior to that, the riding of Cornwall was represented by the Tories for two years. Prior to that Cornwall was actually represented by the NDP. I wonder whether Mike Harris’ decision to abolish all provincial ridings and adopt the federal boundaries was a move designed to benefit the Tories. One thing it did was remove some political clout from the City of Toronto. Under the 130 seat distribution, the Metro Toronto (as it was called at the time) had 23% of the province’s seats. Under the 103 seat distribution, the former Metro Toronto had 21% of the province’s seats. I think this served the Harris anti-Toronto agenda quite nicely. Because of the switch to federal boundaries, Cornwall is no longer sure to be represented by a Liberal provincially. The reason for this is that rural areas now covered in the amalgamated riding are strongly Tory. This however, has yet to deny Cornwall Liberal representation in any of the 3 elections in which federal boundaries have been used. But Cornwall almost lost Liberal representation in 1999 when the Liberals won the riding by only 600 votes. That particular election was an example of strategic voting that worked. The NDP vote was very low in this riding that election. It was so low that it was one of the rare occasions when 46% of the vote was not enough to win. Instead, the Liberals beat the Tories 47.99% to 46.47%. This 46.47% was higher than the province-wide Tory average and yet the Tories still lost. The strategic voting in this riding did not prevent a Tory majority government but it was enough to keep Cornwall red.

Speaking of electoral districts, Tory MPP Norm Sterling is very strongly against the arrangement whereby 10 Northern Ontario electoral districts keep the 1996 federal boundaries, Parry Sound—Muskoka becomes a hybrid of both 1996 and 2004 federal boundaries, and the rest of the province adopts the 2004 federal boundaries. Sterling says that this gives Northern Ontario too much voting clout. What Sterling does not acknowledge is that under his government, Ontario moved to a 103 electoral district system where Northern Ontario’s per-riding population was back than quite a bit less than the per-riding population of Southern Ontario. To the best of my knowledge Sterling did not object to that arrangement then. Even in the days of having 130 MPPs, many Northern Ontario ridings were significantly smaller in population than those elsewhere in the province. All the McGuinty government did was prevent an electoral district from being eliminated in Northern Ontario which would have created crises for numerous incumbents. McGuinty instead said that we can afford to give Northern Ontario a bit more clout at the provincial level than at the federal level because Northern Ontario is important and disadvantaged and has too often been neglected in the past. I think of keeping the extra seat as a compensation for these disadvantages that Northern Ontario has faced.

Adopting the Northern Ontario federal boundaries would have been disastrous for incumbents. Who knows who would have won the Nippising—Timiskaming riding. That is anyone’s guess. Nickel Belt would likely have had an NDP win, possibly larger, possibly narrower. Sault Ste. Marie would have been a Liberal win. Sudbury would have been a Liberal win. Algoma-Manitoulin—Kapaskuing is anyone’s guess. It may well have gone NDP under the federal boundaries. Tamiskaming—Cochrane would have been eliminated and David Ramsay would have been without a seat. He would have been forced to retire or run in Timmins-James Bay against Gilles Bisson. Ramsay would have for certain lost that contest. Thunder Bay—Superior North would have gone Liberal. Thunder Bay—Rainy River would likely have gone NDP whether or not Howard Hampton was the candidate there. You see, the federal redistribution put Howard’s hometown of Rainy River into Thunder Bay—Rainy River. So Howard may have run in Thunder Bay—Rainy River instead of the new Kenora riding. As it happened, Liberal incumbent Bill Mauro won Thunder Bay—Atikokan by only 50 votes. I would consider Hampton’s hometown a strong NDP area provincially. And thus I expect that had the federal boundaries been in place, the NDP would have won Thunder Bay—Rainy River whether Hampton was running there or in the Kenora riding. As for the Kenora riding itself, it is hard to say. Kenora is Liberal federally, with the Tories in second and the NDP a few hundred votes behind the Tories in third. If Hampton were to have run there it would have gone easily NDP. If Hampton had run in Thunder Bay—Rainy River, Kenora still probably would have gone NDP but could have gone Liberal especially if former Kenora Liberal MPP Frank Miclash had attempted a comeback.

Norm Sterling’s solution is to abolish all Ontario ridings and start from scratch, guaranteeing Northern Ontario 11 ridings. This would mean redrawing all ridings and wiping the political map clean. I do not agree with doing this, at least not until after the 2011 federal redistribution. I feel the current boundaries should be used for the 2011 election. After that, if we are unhappy with the new federal boundaries because they do not suit Ontario as a whole or Northern Ontario, then we can consider wiping the map clean and creating our own electoral boundaries.

Unthinkable but true

Well, the unthinkable has occurred. Lucienne Robillard has announced that she will resign her Montreal seat on January 25, two years and two days since she won the 2006 election. She has given no reason for her abrupt decision to resign. Months ago she had already announced that she would not run again. That is why they nominated Marc Garneau in her riding. I do not know whether Robillard thought that there would not be a spring election so she had to resign now. The media treats a spring election as a near certainty. I am inclined to agree with the media on this one even though I do not like it. I am a Liberal, but not all Liberals seem to have realized that an election a few months from now is likely counterproductive for the Liberals. I do not see ourselves in any more of a position to win then than we are now. Liberals were recently talking boldly about defeating the government on their own non-confidence motion initiative in the new year. However, even if they were given the opportunity to do this, my guess is the non-confidence motion would not pass. My guess is the Bloc would vote against it so that they could pass judgment on the 2008 budget before making a decision on whether to the defeat the government. But it is the 2008 budget that makes me think a spring election likely. I see it as very difficult for this parliament to survive the 2008 budget. The Liberals do not want to keep abstaining and the Bloc already yanked their support of the government this autumn. I see it as unlikely that the Bloc would go back to supporting the government because this fall Duceppe seemed quite enthusiastic about an election despite the fact that it would cause the Bloc to lose seats. The only way an election can be avoided is if the Liberals are around 10 points or even more behind in the polls. In that case, we might see the Liberals abstaining or registering only token votes against the budget. This makes a Westmount—Ville-Marie by-election unlikely. Westmount—Ville-Marie is a target riding for the NDP, especially in a by-election. This is due to the 15% the NDP received there in the last election. However, Westmount—Ville-Marie was always a stronger Liberal riding than Outremont as far back as the Chrétien glory days. The Liberals got 45% there in the last election, compared with 35% in Outremont.

Minimum Wage Bill

Last Thursday there was a vote at second reading in the Ontario Legislature on Cheri DiNovo’s reintroduced private member’s bill to raise the minimum wage to $10 an hour. The Bill was defeated 33-11. Almost 60% of the House was absent. There were so few Liberals present that had enough opposition members been there, and had it been a matter of confidence, the government could have been defeated. The government whip’s job is to ensure that such an occurrence never happens. For a majority government to have what I call a guaranteed majority, a certain minimum of government members must be present. This minimum is one more than the total number of opposition members in existence combined. Any less than this and the government can be outvoted. I have looked at numerous House votes both federal and provincial and I have seen that on some occasions the total number of voting government members is less than the guaranteed majority number. My assumption is that in these instances, the whip also counts how many opposition members are present. If the opposition number is insufficient, I can assume the vote proceeds and the government maintains a relative majority for that particular vote. The government whip’s job is to count both government and opposition members present to ensure that the government never loses a crucial vote of any kind.

I have gotten off topic. I wanted to say that my position on the minimum wage has not changed. I do not support Cheri DiNovo’s Bill and instead support the government’s plan to continue to incrementally increase the minimum wage. One Liberal MPP, Tony Ruprecht, voted in favour of the Bill. This is consistent with his statement during the election that he supports an immediate 10 dollar minimum wage. Considering the poverty levels that exist in his riding of Davenport, I do not blame him at all for his position. I feel like listing here the recorded division on DiNovo’s Bill:

In Favour:

Bisson
DiNovo
Gélinas
Hampton
Horwath
Kormos
Marchese
Miller (Hamilton East–Stoney Creek)
Prue
Ruprecht
Tabuns

Against:

Aggelonitis
Arthurs
Balkissoon
Broten
Brownell
Chudleigh
Colle
Delaney
Dhillon
Dickson
Flynn
Gerretsen
Hardeman
Hoy
Jones
Klees
Kwinter
Lalonde
Leal
Levac
Mitchell
Moridi
Naqvi
Ramsay
Rinaldi
Savoline
Scott
Sergio
Shurman
Smith
Van Bommel
Wilkinson
Wilson