Ontario Liberals

I think that Dalton McGuinty’s re-election chances depend in part on the relative popularity of the federal Conservative and Liberal parties. I’ve said this before, but once again I think there is a spillover effect between what happens on the federal scene that corresponds to attitudes at the Ontario provincial scene. In my humble opinion, the McGuinty government still has a significant chance of re-election in the fall. However, it must be remembered that 90% of sitting MPPs as well as the government itself was elected during a different political era. The composition of the current legislature was voted on at a time when the federal Liberals reigned supreme under Jean Chrétien. The current legislature was elected at a time when the federal Liberals were ever popular and unbeatable under Chrétien. It is amazing how quickly that decade-long juggernaut came crashing down mere months after the 2003 provincial election. By June 2004, less than a year later, that juggernaut that was supposed to continue under Paul Martin was gone. So the fact that the McGuinty government was elected in that previous political era is something to keep in mind. On the flip side it is important to note that the Ontario Liberals are still stronger in many rural seats than the federal Liberals. However, if the Ontario Liberals want to win the coming election they have to run an actual campaign. They cannot simply coast as the federal Liberals did in the last election. Coasting leads to inevitable defeat. The Liberals must actually campaign. If they do campaign, they still have a decent shot at winning.