Column by Robert Fisher

I’d like to take issue with a column written recently by Robert Fisher of the CBC. Firstly, he said “Some inside and outside Queen’s Park tell me McGuinty has, at best, 18 months and members of his cabinet perhaps even less.” It is not clear what he means by this because he then he goes onto indicate that McGuinty will step down at some point during this parliamentary term. Does he mean that an election will be forced in 18 months even though Andrea Horwath has pledged to make this parliament work? Or does he mean that McGuinty is going to step down in 18 months? He can’t mean both because if an election were forced in 18 months, there would be no time for McGuinty to step down and he’d lead the Liberals into the next election. I’d be surprised if McGuinty quit in 18 months. He just worked really hard to successfully restore his popularity. Why would he quit so soon after that when at the moment his leadership seems an asset to his party? As far as an election being forced in 18 months is concerned, I’d be surprised if at that time both the Tories and NDP are ready to face the electorate again after just coming off a campaign that was a bit disappointing for both of them in terms of results. Besides, Andrea Horwath in particular has expressed a desire to make this parliament work long term. If an election were forced 18 months from now there would be, as I say, no time for succession in the premier’s office from McGuinty to another Liberal even if McGuinty were interested in retiring.
Fisher is also too hard on several cabinet ministers. He says that Michael Chan, Margarett Best and Harinder Takhar bring little to the cabinet table before, during, or after question period. This is an unfortunate slight against 3 well liked and competent ministers all of whom recently won re-election in their ridings.
Fisher also was surprised that Kathleen Wynne was given Municipal Affairs and not something else. He said “Surely, her re-election and her work as co-chair of the Liberal campaign ... meant she deserved better.” But Municipal Affairs is a great cabinet post in my opinion, given how important municipalities are in Ontario. To me it is a very fun and interesting post. Plus Wynne gets to go head to head with Rob Ford. What could be more fun than that? Plus Wynne has also been given the very important post of Minister of Aboriginal Affairs in addition to the Municipal Affairs portfolio. So it is not that she surely deserved better, she got the best postings possible.

Ottawa teen's suicide

One sad item that has been in the news recently is the suicide of Jamie Hubley, the 15 year old son of Ottawa City Councillor Allan Hubley. Jamie committed suicide because he was an openly gay high school student who was massively bullied at school by cruel fellow students for being gay. He wrote in his final blog posting that as far as he could see, the bullying would never get better despite the slogans of the anti-homophobic bullying campaigns (that it will get better). He wrote in his blog how depressed he was and that he was cutting himself. Cutting oneself is a well known action of depressed teenagers. Teenage depression is a very big problem even without bullying. Bullying causing depression and suicide among teenagers is a big problem even without homophobic bullying. I want to state very clearly that homophobic bullying is not acceptable under any circumstances whatsoever. There are no exceptions at all -- never ever acceptable.
Also, bullying of any kind is not acceptable under any circumstances and there are no exceptions at all to this either. The Ontario government needs to continue and ramp up its anti-bullying campaign, including fighting homophobic bullying.
Jamie expressed thoughts of suicide for weeks before his suicide. I wish someone could have noticed the suicidal thoughts and done an intervention before he killed himself. Changing high schools would be a good option to escape the bullying, for him and other teenagers like him. There has to be more consequences for bullies in high school, which also means catching and reporting bullying more when it happens.
RIP Jamie Hubley and condolences to his family, friends, and all those who knew him.

Ontario election results

Well the election results are in and there is some disappointment here in the Liberal camp. One seat shy of a majority still does not make a majority. It can be argued that it makes a “major minority” but cooperation is now needed in the legislature to get things done. This is still a great result when considering that a few months ago the McGuinty government was written off completely and Hudak was predicated to easily win a majority government. It was a strange election in many ways. The Liberals gained ground in many Toronto ridings, increasing their percentages from 2007 in ridings such as Don Valley West, Willowdale, Eglinton—Lawrence, St. Paul’s, Toronto Centre, Trinity—Spadina, Beaches—East York, Etobicoke—Lakeshore and Etobicoke Centre. Yet the Liberal vote collapsed in many rural ridings, denying the Liberals a majority government. Most of those rural ridings in Southern Ontario went Conservative while most of those rural ridings in Northern Ontario went NDP. The only completely rural riding the Liberals now hold is Glengarry—Prescott-Russell. They also retained the partially rural ridings of Peterborough, Thunder Bay—Atikokan, Thunder Bay—Superior North, and Brant. But in Peterborough, Thunder Bay—Atikokan, and Brant, the Liberal vote was under 40%, demonstrating the challenges the Liberals now face in mixed urban-rural ridings. However, Thunder Bay—Atikokan Liberal incumbent Bill Mauro miraculously increased his vote percentage from 37.69% in 2007 to 39%. He also increased his margin from a mere 50 votes to about 400 votes. Quite the turnaround given that many expect Mauro to be defeated this time after his near-loss in 2007. It was a little bit surprising to see the rural riding of Essex go to the NDP. Most such rural ridings in this election went Conservative and the Tories federally increased their vote to an impressive 48% in the May federal election. This was one of a few cases where the NDP jumped from third place in 2007 to first place in 2011.
The NDP also won the suburban 905 riding of Bramelea—Gore—Malton. This is the first time the NDP federally or provincially, have won a riding in Peel Region. Bramelea—Gore—Malton contains part of Brampton and part of Mississauga. In the 1990 Ontario election when the NDP won a majority government, the NDP came close to winning both Brampton ridings but fell just short, losing Brampton South by about 400 votes and losing Brampton North by a scant 98 votes after a recount. The NDP also came within about 1000 votes of winning Mississauga North in that election. The old Mississauga North comprises all of the Mississauga portion of the current Bramelea—Gore—Malton. It seems very likely that had the riding existed in 1990, Bramalea—Gore—Malton would have elected an NDPer. So it is not completely surprising the riding went NDP in this election. In addition, in the 1988 federal election, Bramelea—Gore—Malton (at that time known as Brampton—Malton, it was renamed Bramelea—Gore—Malton in 1990), the NDP got 22% of the vote, above both the provincial and federal NDP averages of that election. Again, this high result from 1988 shows the roots that allowed the riding to go NDP in this election.
A lot of those above mentioned Toronto ridings that saw an increased Liberal vote from the 2007 election went Conservative in the May federal election, making the Liberal vote increases particularly astounding. Kathleen Wynne getting 58% of the vote in Don Valley West, a key Tory riding during the Harris years, was particularly stunning. This is even more amazing considering that Don Valley West went Conservative federally, with the Tories edging out the Liberals by around 1.5% of the vote. It was also astonishing to see the Liberals get 51% of the vote in Willowdale. Willowdale was one of the most shocking federal pickups for the federal Conservatives in the May federal election. I still can’t believe the Tories got 41% there federally, edging out Liberal incumbent Martha Hall Findlay. Yet Willowdale has always been a weaker riding for the Liberals provincially than federally, and yet Liberal incumbent David Zimmer got 51% of the vote even after Hall Findlay lost in that shocker last May. This is the first time in living memory that the provincial Liberals have gotten over 50% of the vote in Willowdale or its predecessor riding Armour Heights. Willowdale has always been a target seat provincially for the Tories – it was one of three Toronto ridings to go Tory in the 1990 Ontario election. Willowdale helped the Tories keep their majority in the 1999 provincial election and everyone was shocked when Zimmer beat incumbent Tory cabinet minister David Young in the 2003 federal election. So it was pleasantly surprising to see the Liberals get an absolute majority in Willowdale provincially.
It was quite surprising to see the Liberals get only 21% in Simcoe North. In the 2007 election the Liberals got 30.5% in this riding and got 38.9% in Simcoe North in the 2003 election. In the 2004 federal election when many rural ridings in Ontario went Conservative, the Liberals won with 43% of the vote with socially progressive and long-time Liberal MP Paul DeVillers as the candidate. DeVillers retired at the 2006 federal election and the Liberal vote dropped to 38% of the vote. Since then the federal Liberals have done quite poorly in rural Ontario and the Liberals have sadly stopped being competitive in Simcoe North federally and provincially. This is unfortunate given the past competiveness of the riding for the Liberals.
Congratulations to the Liberals for forming another government.

Election Day

Today is election day. I encourage all you Ontario voters to vote.

I also encourage all voters who are supporters of the Ontario Liberal Party to vote. The Liberals need your vote and of course every vote counts.

Best of luck to the Ontario Liberal Party.

Rob Ford's proposed cuts

I’d like to weigh in on the issue of budget cuts and library closures in the City of Toronto. The Ford brothers appear to have forgotten that they promised no service cuts but now act as though implementing service cuts, including closing libraries, was what they were elected on. It may was well be repeated yet again that in fact Rob Ford was elected to cut the gravy, not actual services and not to close libraries. I also believe it folly to claim like the Fords do that every single person objecting to cuts is affiliated with a union. Some people really don’t want their libraries closed. Some people really don’t want cuts to programs such as daycare. And they may not be in a union. It is not only labour unions that object to hard-right policies and the hard-right should admit that. But for them, unions are a type of scapegoat through which they can claim that all objection to hard-right polices come from unions and that regular folk just love those hard-right policies. This claim is not true. Polls consistently show that even most Conservative voters support some social spending. Ford was elected largely by Liberal and NDP voters. Conservative voters alone could not have put him over the top. I estimate Ford got around 25-30% of Liberal voters and about 20% of NDP voters. Now admittedly, some of those then-Liberal voters became Conservative voters in the federal election held a few months later. This appeared true in ridings the Conservatives won in Toronto federally where some then-Liberal voters who likely voted for Ford also moved to the federal Conservatives. But this was still a minority of Liberal voters who did the switching to the federal Conservatives. It just happened to be enough to pick up a large number of seats in the city, especially with increased votes splitting due to that “Orange Crush”. Notably in Etobicoke North, where Rob Ford got the highest percentage of the vote, a large number of Rob Ford voters voted Liberal and NDP which allowed the Liberals to retain the riding. As I also say, most Conservative voters in Toronto are not hard right-wingers anyway. Therefore when Torontonians strongly object to the type of cuts the Fords have been proposing, it should not come as a surprise. Voters do want low taxes, but this desire is tempered quite a lot when they see the type of services that would have to be cut to give them really low taxes.

Note: This is being posted in the midnight hours of September 7, right before the provincial election is officially called. In the coming days I will be giving commentary on the provincial election.

RIP Jack Layton

RIP to Jack Layton
Layton lost his battle with cancer. He was a great politician and was much more than just an elder statesman. I did not agree with all of his policies but every last one of his policies was well meaning. I liked his longstanding policies on gay rights, ribbons for the Montreal Massacre anniversary, and infrastructure funding for cities. He was renowned for being able to work well with Mel Lastman despite their ideological differences, which is in stark contrast to the current situation at Toronto City Hall in which the left-wingers are completely shut out of all policy making. That current situation is not good for a municipal government and it is great that Layton and Lastman could work well together.
Layton is known for having run for Mayor of Toronto in 1991. He only got 32.88% compared to 58% for June Rowlands. He ran a good campaign for mayor but likely suffered in the election due to the unpopularity of the year-old NDP provincial government.
Two times Layton made the decision to prop-up a minority government: in 2005 with Paul Martin’s minority government, and in 2009 with Stephen Harper’s minority government. I believe Layton made the right decision in both those cases to prop-up the government – neither the spring of 2005 nor the fall of 2009 were the right time in my view for a federal election. Both times Layton extracted significant concessions from the government: in 2005 for infrastructure spending and in 2009 for the unemployed who were out of work because of the recession. I loved his eternal optimism and his willingness to work with leaders of other parties, even Stephen Harper, who is not known for his negotiating skills.
I certainly didn’t agree with all his left-wing causes in municipal and federal politics, but some of his policies were good and we will all miss him. My thoughts are with his family and colleagues.

The Australian election

I haven’t had a chance yet to comment on the recent Australian election. It certainly was an abnormal election. The former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd was dumped by his own party and new Prime Minister Julia Gillard called a new election. Rudd was dumped because his party had fallen behind the opposition in the polls. But in my view that decline in the polls could have been avoided had different courses of action been taken by the Rudd government. Firstly, the Rudd government should not have abandoned its climate change legislation. I realize it could not be passed in the Senate because of opposition obstructionism, but the legislation was very popular with the Australian public and abandoning it made the government’s popularity decline sharply. Instead the government, in my view, should have continued to push for the legislation. They could even have considered a double dissolution on the issue. In Australia, a double dissolution can occur when government legislation is rejected multiple times by the Senate. In the case of double dissolution, the entire Senate is up for election rather than the normal Senate half-election in which only half the members are up for election. After a double dissolution election, the Australian constitution allows for a joint sitting of both the House of Representatives and the Senate wherein a combined majority vote of both chambers can pass legislation that previously triggered the double dissolution. Labor certainly could have won such an election, in my opinion, if they had campaigned on the climate change bill and forgone their deeply unpopular mining tax (which also almost cost Labor government). Following an election victory for Labor in this scenario, there almost certainly would have been a combined majority for Labor in the two houses that could have passed the climate change legislation.
What is very strange about the climate change legislation is that the Green Party of Australia actually opposed the Rudd government’s climate change legislation on the basis that it did not go far enough and as a result the Greens voted against it in the Senate. This made the margin of defeat for the climate change bill quite wide. I believe this approach of opposing legislation because it does not go far enough is counterproductive. The nature of politics is compromise. In my view if you support something, you should always support legislation that meets that goal even if the legislation does not go as far as you want. Otherwise change will never be effected because people will be stuck voting against everything on the basis of it not going far enough and so nothing would pass and no progress would be made. To me it seems like a no-brainer that the Green Party of Australia ought to have supported the climate change legislation even though they didn’t think it had enough in it because something is always better than nothing.
Following the election, the Australian Senate composition does not change until July, but when it does change, ironically the Labor government will be in a better position in the Senate then they are in the House, in stark contrast to the government’s previous term when they were in a much better position in the House than in the Senate. Come July, Labor and the Greens will have a combined majority in the Senate. Given that the Green Party has given its support to the Labor minority government in both the House (through newly elected Green MP Adam Bandt) and in the Senate, the government will have a de facto majority in the Senate next July. Meanwhile in the House, Labor just barely holds on, being supported by the Green Party and 3 Independents for a very slim majority. Reinforcing the strangeness of the election is the fact that the two key independents giving Labor the majority are former members of the right-wing Australian National Party (one of the members of Australia’s centre-right coalition parliamentary group). Looking at the two members in question, however, makes their support for Labor less surprising. Both appear to have drifted away from the Nationals quite a bit in terms of policy. For example, both based their decision to back Labor in large part on the Labor government’s comprehensive program to build broadband internet to rural areas of Australia, a program that the National Party strongly opposes. Given that the opposition Coalition opposes the Labor government’s broadband program it appears that Labor’s support of the program and the Coalition’s opposition to it helped save the Labor government from defeat. Labor did manage to win the “two party vote” wherein under the Australian election system, vote preferences are distributed to the two main parties. They fell one seat below the Coalition, however. But to complicate matters, one of the newly elected National MPs from Western Australia declared that although he is a National MP, he was not part of the Coalition, effectively making the two main parliamentary groups tied for seats and giving Labor an opportunity to deny that the Coalition had won more seats than them. In the end, Labor won the election and I congratulate them for a well-earned victory and wish them luck as they govern as best they possibly can.