Ontario election results

Well the election results are in and there is some disappointment here in the Liberal camp. One seat shy of a majority still does not make a majority. It can be argued that it makes a “major minority” but cooperation is now needed in the legislature to get things done. This is still a great result when considering that a few months ago the McGuinty government was written off completely and Hudak was predicated to easily win a majority government. It was a strange election in many ways. The Liberals gained ground in many Toronto ridings, increasing their percentages from 2007 in ridings such as Don Valley West, Willowdale, Eglinton—Lawrence, St. Paul’s, Toronto Centre, Trinity—Spadina, Beaches—East York, Etobicoke—Lakeshore and Etobicoke Centre. Yet the Liberal vote collapsed in many rural ridings, denying the Liberals a majority government. Most of those rural ridings in Southern Ontario went Conservative while most of those rural ridings in Northern Ontario went NDP. The only completely rural riding the Liberals now hold is Glengarry—Prescott-Russell. They also retained the partially rural ridings of Peterborough, Thunder Bay—Atikokan, Thunder Bay—Superior North, and Brant. But in Peterborough, Thunder Bay—Atikokan, and Brant, the Liberal vote was under 40%, demonstrating the challenges the Liberals now face in mixed urban-rural ridings. However, Thunder Bay—Atikokan Liberal incumbent Bill Mauro miraculously increased his vote percentage from 37.69% in 2007 to 39%. He also increased his margin from a mere 50 votes to about 400 votes. Quite the turnaround given that many expect Mauro to be defeated this time after his near-loss in 2007. It was a little bit surprising to see the rural riding of Essex go to the NDP. Most such rural ridings in this election went Conservative and the Tories federally increased their vote to an impressive 48% in the May federal election. This was one of a few cases where the NDP jumped from third place in 2007 to first place in 2011.
The NDP also won the suburban 905 riding of Bramelea—Gore—Malton. This is the first time the NDP federally or provincially, have won a riding in Peel Region. Bramelea—Gore—Malton contains part of Brampton and part of Mississauga. In the 1990 Ontario election when the NDP won a majority government, the NDP came close to winning both Brampton ridings but fell just short, losing Brampton South by about 400 votes and losing Brampton North by a scant 98 votes after a recount. The NDP also came within about 1000 votes of winning Mississauga North in that election. The old Mississauga North comprises all of the Mississauga portion of the current Bramelea—Gore—Malton. It seems very likely that had the riding existed in 1990, Bramalea—Gore—Malton would have elected an NDPer. So it is not completely surprising the riding went NDP in this election. In addition, in the 1988 federal election, Bramelea—Gore—Malton (at that time known as Brampton—Malton, it was renamed Bramelea—Gore—Malton in 1990), the NDP got 22% of the vote, above both the provincial and federal NDP averages of that election. Again, this high result from 1988 shows the roots that allowed the riding to go NDP in this election.
A lot of those above mentioned Toronto ridings that saw an increased Liberal vote from the 2007 election went Conservative in the May federal election, making the Liberal vote increases particularly astounding. Kathleen Wynne getting 58% of the vote in Don Valley West, a key Tory riding during the Harris years, was particularly stunning. This is even more amazing considering that Don Valley West went Conservative federally, with the Tories edging out the Liberals by around 1.5% of the vote. It was also astonishing to see the Liberals get 51% of the vote in Willowdale. Willowdale was one of the most shocking federal pickups for the federal Conservatives in the May federal election. I still can’t believe the Tories got 41% there federally, edging out Liberal incumbent Martha Hall Findlay. Yet Willowdale has always been a weaker riding for the Liberals provincially than federally, and yet Liberal incumbent David Zimmer got 51% of the vote even after Hall Findlay lost in that shocker last May. This is the first time in living memory that the provincial Liberals have gotten over 50% of the vote in Willowdale or its predecessor riding Armour Heights. Willowdale has always been a target seat provincially for the Tories – it was one of three Toronto ridings to go Tory in the 1990 Ontario election. Willowdale helped the Tories keep their majority in the 1999 provincial election and everyone was shocked when Zimmer beat incumbent Tory cabinet minister David Young in the 2003 federal election. So it was pleasantly surprising to see the Liberals get an absolute majority in Willowdale provincially.
It was quite surprising to see the Liberals get only 21% in Simcoe North. In the 2007 election the Liberals got 30.5% in this riding and got 38.9% in Simcoe North in the 2003 election. In the 2004 federal election when many rural ridings in Ontario went Conservative, the Liberals won with 43% of the vote with socially progressive and long-time Liberal MP Paul DeVillers as the candidate. DeVillers retired at the 2006 federal election and the Liberal vote dropped to 38% of the vote. Since then the federal Liberals have done quite poorly in rural Ontario and the Liberals have sadly stopped being competitive in Simcoe North federally and provincially. This is unfortunate given the past competiveness of the riding for the Liberals.
Congratulations to the Liberals for forming another government.

CNE and Trinity--Spadina

I recently took a day-long trip to the CNE. There was a sign that listed all of this years Ex sponsors. I saw the symbol for Ontario there but I did not see a symbol for the government of Canada. Either I missed it or somehow the federal government is not sponsoring the CNE despite the fact that CNE stands for Canadian National Exhibition. The CNE grounds are in the Trinity—Spadina riding. I want to save time so I’ll call the riding TS. TS is home to some of the most exiting and famous attractions in Toronto. These include the CNE grounds, the CN Tower, the SkyDome (Rogers Centre) and the Air Canada Centre. All these things with the exception of the CNE grounds are in very short walking distance from the Union Subway station. To get the CNE grounds from the Union Subway station, you take a streetcar. The famous Eaton Centre is also in the federal TS riding, but not yet in the provincial version of TS. Federally TS is held by New Democrat Olivia Chow. Formerly it was held by Tony Ianno. Ianno is again the Liberal candidate for TS. His motto is “Send a strong voice back to Ottawa”. Ianno has run in every federal election since and including 1988. In 1988 Ianno came within 400 votes of winning, losing to New Democrat Dan Heap. In 1993 Heap retired and Ianno scored the largest electoral victory of his political career. In 1997 Ianno won in a tight race against Olivia Chow. In 2000, Ianno won by a 9 point margin over author Michael Valpy. In 2004, Ianno scored a 800 vote victory over Olivia Chow, surprising many. In this election Ianno made a very big deal about Chow’s refusal to resign her council seat (which she had recently been elected in) when running for federal office. In 2006, Chow responded to this by resigning her council seat and stating that win or lose the election she was going to move to Ottawa to be with her husband Jack Layton. As it happened the national Liberal loss allowed Chow to win the seat although still by a fairly narrow margin. It is for this reason that the Liberals have a shot to win this seat back. But as the 1988 election proved, this can only be done if the Liberals win government. So that is one of many reasons why the Liberals must get their act together and win government. One encouraging sign for the Liberals in TS is that municipally half the riding is no longer represented by a New Democrat. The western half of the riding is represented by 20+ year incumbent Joe Pantalone. Pantalone’s sister was an elementary school principal but last year precipitated a very embarrassing, bizarre, and illegal incident at her school that is too embarrassing even to discuss. This however did not affect Joe Pantalone because after this embarrassing incident Pantalone was easily re-elected. The encouraging part for the Liberals is in the eastern end of TS. Here independent/small-l liberal candidate Adam Vaughan won against semi-official NDP candidate Helen Kennedy by a large margin. So I wish Tony Ianno luck.

The provincial level is the level at which TS is the toughest for the Liberals. Not since the 1987-1990 period have the Liberals held the predecessor to TS (Fort York). In this 1987-1990 period the Liberals also held all the other ridings that make up the modern TS (Dovercourt, Parkdale, St. Andrew-St. Patrick). Since 1990 life has been tough here for the Liberals. Since 1990 the only component riding of TS the Liberals have ever been able to win is Parkdale (which only made up 5% of TS). The PCs were third in Fort York in 1987, 1990, 1995, and third in TS in 1999 and 2003. Even in 1987, life was not the best for the Liberals in Fort York considering that even then Liberal Bob Wong only won Fort York by about 100 votes over Joe Pantalone of the NDP. In 2003, some thought the Liberals could win the riding with then-Davenport trustee Nellie Pedro. But the Liberals did not come close. This time round again the Liberals hope that they can win the riding with Kate Holloway. Holloway was until recently an active member of the Green Party of Canada. She also ran for the Green Party in the 2004 Federal Election in Scarborough—Rouge River. When Stephane Dion was elected leader of the Liberal Party, his environmental credentials caused Holloway to join the Liberals. The Liberals are hoping that an as an environmental candidate Holloway can pose a credible challenge to TS NDP incumbent Rosario Marchese. I certainly hope Holloway can win but I fear TS may be to strong an NDP riding at the provincial level for that to happen. A Holloway win would certainly bode well for Tony Ianno, however. I wish Kate luck.