Goodbye John Tory

I would like to say that I’m sorry that John Tory was humiliated in the Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock by-election. Tory was always very moderate for a Tory and while I always disagreed with him on the overall direction of Ontario, I always appreciated his support for same-sex marriage. Thus I extend to Tory my political condolences. At the same time I am pleased a Liberal won the by-election. Congratulations to Rick Johnson. He, just like Kathleen Wynne before him, proved to John Tory that his Liberal opponent is no pushover. It is unfortunately disturbing that the Ontario PCs are likely to now take a hard shift to the far right because hardcore Conservative Tim Hudak is the frontrunner for the PC leadership. Ontario does not need to go down that road again. Another possible contender for the PC leadership is apparently federal Public Safety minister Peter Van Loan. The issue with a Van Loan run is that he does not have a seat in the Ontario legislature and many Ontario Tories have expressed a desire that their next leader already have a seat in the Ontario legislature. If Van Loan ran and won he would have to convince the holder of his seat in the provincial legislature, Julia Munro, to step aside, something she was unwilling to do for John Tory despite the fact that Tory’s cottage is in her riding. If Van Loan ran, he would not have to resign his seat unless he won the leadership. However protocol would dictate that he would have to resign as a cabinet minister as soon as he entered the provincial leadership race. Then if he didn’t win the leadership he’d have to hope that Harper would be willing to take him back into cabinet.

Strangely enough, Peterborough Conservative MP Dean Del Mastro was approached by some provincial Tories to run for the leadership. He declined. Even if Del Mastro may have been a good leader, Del Mastro himself expressed the view that the next leader should already have a seat in the Ontario legislature. Del Mastro does not have a seat in the Ontario legislature so that would have worked against him if he had run. Also if Del Mastro had run and won, he would have found himself completely seatless. This is because the provincial riding of Peterborough represented at the Ontario legislature is held by the Liberals. Not only this, but all provincial seats adjacent to the Peterborough riding are also held by the Liberals (this includes the Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock riding John Tory just lost). The closest provincial riding to Peterborough held by the PCs is the Durham riding. Thus in the hypothetical situation of Dean Del Mastro running for and winning the Ontario PC leadership, he might have to convince Durham MPP John O’Toole to step aside to allow him to run in a provincial by-election. Considering that O’Toole might not be willing to do so means it is a good thing for Del Mastro that he is not running for the PC leadership. Del Mastro’s only possible incentive for moving to the Ontario legislature is that once a member of the Ontario legislature, his job would be more secure than is his job in the House of Commons. This is because the Ontario legislature has a stable majority government slated to last until September 2011 whereas the federal House of Commons has a much less stable minority government that pundits believe will only last so long. However, considering the likely uphill battle Del Mastro would have faced against frontrunner Tim Hudak it probably would not have been worth it for Del Mastro to run for the PC leadership.

In an article in the Globe and Mail, there is this strange tidbit:

“Immigration Minister Jason Kenney, who hails from Calgary, may also be wooed by provincial Tories anxious to gain access to his contacts in ethnic communities in the Toronto area. He was invited to speak at the provincial party's convention last month, where he joked about having been made an "honorary" Ontarian.”

I assume the article didn’t mean that the Ontario PCs may woo Jason Kenney to run for the Ontario PC leadership. Although Kenney may well be an “honorary Ontarian” and although Kenney lives a significant part of the year in Ontario due to his job as an MP, Kenney actually running for the Ontario PC leadership would be too much of a parachute. The article may have been referring to Ontario PC leadership contenders seeking Kenney’s endorsement or may have been referring to the provincial party asking Kenney to use his contacts with Toronto ethnic communities to establish contacts for the Ontario PC party with those same ethnic communities. Kenney actually running for the Ontario PC leadership seems way too “out there” to be possible.

Former Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock MPP Laurie Scott was originally planning to run in her old riding again in 2011. She may well still do so despite there now being a Liberal incumbent in her riding. Even if she didn’t run Rick Johnson would face a tough fight to retain his seat but I’m hoping he fights that fight valiantly and I wish him good luck in the legislature.

Wawa

As I write this I am staying at a motel in Wawa, Ontario. Wawa is in the federal electoral district of Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing. The results from the last federal election for this riding were as follows. Liberal: 38% , NDP: 34% , Conservative: 23%. The NDP almost won last time which was surprising considering the district’s strong Liberal history – decades and decades of continuous Liberal representation. In fact former Prime Minister Lester Pearson once represented part of this riding in the House of Commons. But a small swing between the Liberals and NDP in the last election and this would be an NDP riding. This should not be overly shocking considering the provincial NDP history that much of this riding had prior to 1999. A large portion of the riding was the Algoma riding that was represented by Bud Wildman all the way from 1975 to 1999. Ontario’s far North sent representatives from Ontario’s Progressive Conservative Party. The Red Tory machine at the time had strength in Northern Ontario. This means that prior to 1987, the old Algoma–Manitoulin riding was represented by a Tory. But because the modern district had a large portion of it represented by Bud Wildman, we can see that this riding does have NDP history. In addition, the current Algoma–Manitoulin district was certainly NDP popular vote-wise in 1990. Northern Ontario uses different boundaries for the provincial legislature than the federal boundaries. So the provincial counterpart to Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing is simply called Algoma–Manitoulin. It is a little bit smaller in size and population than the federal counterpart. Nevertheless the results for the provincial riding were similarly close in the last provincial election. The Liberals got 42.6%, the NDP got 36.9%, and the PCs got 14%. This was quite a bit closer than the 2003 results for the riding with the exact same boundaries. The NDP vote jumped several points and the Liberal vote dropped several points. Algoma–Manitoulin is represented in the Ontario Legislature by Liberal Mike Brown. Mike Brown has represented a riding called Algoma–Manitoulin since 1987, although prior to 1999 his district was much smaller in size and population. Mike Brown was Speaker of the Ontario Legislature from 2005 to 2007. During the provincial election Brown was the incumbent Speaker and therefore it is hard to say if Brown got any extra votes because he was Speaker. If Brown had not been Speaker at the time the race between the Liberals and the NDP may have been even closer. Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing’s federal MP is Liberal Brent St. Denis. St. Denis has been an MP since 1993 and is certainly a native son for the riding – he was born in Blind River (within the riding) and has many community roots in the riding. However the NDP is gunning for his seat. The same NDP candidate as 2004 and 2006, Carol Hughes, has been renominated for the NDP and this time Hughes hopes to close the narrow gap and win the seat. I do not want to see this happen because this would involve knocking off St. Denis – a progressive, pro-gay marriage Liberal. The NDP did very well in the riding last time, even before much of the economic hardship that this riding experienced had hit. In the next federal election a major question that should determine the outcome of this riding would be whether voters in this riding would blame the incumbent party in their riding (the Liberals) or the incumbent government (the Conservatives) for the economic hardships that these Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing voters have experienced. If they blame the Conservative government, then St. Denis has more of an advantage. If they blame the Liberals, NDP candidate Carol Hughes would have a significant advantage. The interesting thing about this riding is that this is quite a left-wing riding despite it being a very rural riding. This is in contrast to Saskatchewan, where rural areas are strongly Conservative. This is also in contrast generally to many rural places in several different provinces in Canada. The reason for this discrepancy applies more generally to all rural Northern Ontario ridings with the exception of the more well-off regions of Muskoka, Parry Sound, and Nipissing. Outside those 3 regions, rural Northern Ontario tends to be more economically disadvantaged. Economically disadvantaged voters tend to vote more left-wing. This is why we see several left-wing ridings in Northern Ontario that are rural. More specifically, it can be said in general that people in these economically disadvantaged rural areas of Northern Ontario experience lower paying jobs, less job security, and higher unemployment. These things are key factors that make voters vote more left-wing. In many cases, such conditions cause voters to opt for the NDP, thus explaining the high NDP numbers in the economically disadvantaged rural Northern Ontario ridings. This phenomenon explains the left-wing nature of Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing and establishes the general fact that rural in Northern Ontario means quite different things than rural in many other parts of the country.

I want to make one additional note about the fact that the Ontario PCs used to routinely win many seats in Northern Ontario prior to 1987. In the 1987 election, most vestiges of the Northern Big Blue Machine disappeared. However, the Tories still managed to win 3 seats in Northern Ontario – Nipissing, Parry Sound, and Cochrane South. Based on political history, Nipissing and Parry Sound are not shocker wins for the Tories in 1987. However, the 1987 Tory win in Timmins-based Cochrane South seems strange from a modern prospective considering the fact that the area covering Cochrane South is reliably left-wing as evidenced in recent elections. The explanation for the anomaly comes from the personal popularity of the 1987 Tory candidate, incumbent Alan Pope. Pope was a Red Tory and the final Tory holdout in Northern Ontario outside Muskoka, Parry Sound and Nipissing. Pope did not run again in 1990. However, he won his seat in 1987 fairly easily. The Tories were in fact drifting to the right at that time regardless of Pope’s own views but this drift to the right had not yet registered in the Timmins area. When Pope retired in 1990 his seat went NDP as part of the NDP wave and the Timmins area has been represented by the NDP provincially ever since. But due to the slightly odd circumstances of the 1987 Cochrane South election, Cochrane South has the distinction of being the only riding in all of Ontario to elect a Tory in 1987 but to not do so in 1995. Similarly, Cochrane South was the only 1987 PC riding to go NDP in 1995. I will be heading to Timmins next and I will survey Timmins more at that time.

Provinical poll form Ipsos Reid

There is a provincial poll released August 28 from Ipsos Reid showing the Liberals at 42%, the Conservatives at 35%, the NDP at 16%, and the Greens at 6%. This is a drop for the Greens and a significant drop for the NDP. It is also an increase for the Liberals and a drop for the Tories. This poll also provides strong evidence to me that regional breakdowns for polls within the province, especially for Northern Ontario, are unreliable. This poll shows for Northern Ontario the Liberals at 51%, the Tories at 20%, and the NDP at 18%. The previous Ipsos Reid poll (released August 21) showed the Tories at 41% in Northern Ontario, and the Liberals at 34%. The current poll has the Tories dropping 21 points in Northern Ontario. Such a large fluctuation is not realistic in my opinion. I’d also expect the NDP to be higher than 20% in Northern Ontario. I thus suspect that the Northern Ontario results are not accurate possibly due to small sample size within that region. I’m also wondering if it is the same thing in the 416 and 905. Even though the Liberal lead expanded in this poll overall, it somehow shrunk substantially in the 905. The Liberal lead in the 416 also shrank to just 3 points. Is it possible that the results for both the 416 and 905 may be inaccurate due to small sample size within those regions? I’m inclined to believe that regional results within Ontario tend to be inaccurate due to sample size and thus to get the real picture it is best to look at the province-wide poll results. In my opinion, a 7 point lead would be hard pressed not to produce a majority government.