Yesterday I drove through a neighbourhood in the northeastern part of the Willowdale. The lawn signs there were about 10 to 1 for the Liberals. This is despite the fact that the neighbourhood is in Tory candidate David Shiner’s municipal ward that he represents on city council. I’ve seen Liberal lawn sings in other parts of Willowdale as well. I really hope that Willowdale Liberal incumbent David Zimmer is able to win re-election over David Shiner.
The Election Projection Project has called Ajax—Pickering for the Conservatives and Oshawa for the NDP. I wonder whether the prediction for Ajax—Pickering is a little premature. The seat is Liberal federally. If provincially there is a Liberal majority government, shouldn’t Ajax—Pickering go Liberal? As for Oshawa, I think the prediction is based on lawn signs and reports on what is happening on the ground. I want the Liberals to win Oshawa. However, I’ve heard tell the provincial Liberals haven’t won Oshawa ever since Liberal Premier Mitch Hepburn tried to break up a strike in Oshawa in the 1930s. Between the NDP and the Conservatives, I’m not sure which I’d like better to win. The NDP candidate in Oshawa is Sid Ryan. He has already run several times previously for the NDP federally and provincially. He’s come close all but one of those times. In the 2006 Federal Election, Ryan ran in Oshawa and came within 5 points of beating incumbent Conservative Colin Carrie. In the 2004 Federal Election, Ryan ran in Oshawa and came within 400 votes of beating Carrie in an open seat contest. In the 2003 Ontario Election, Ryan ran in Oshawa and came within 1000 votes of beating Conservative incumbent Jerry Ouellette. In the 1999 Ontario Election, Ryan ran in Scarborough Centre and placed an above average but still distant third. He split the vote and allowed Conservative incumbent Marilyn Muchinski to be re-elected by a wide margin despite several other Tory candidates being defeated in the same election with higher shares of the vote than Muchinski received. Ryan is president of CUPE (Canadian Union of Public Employees) Ontario. Ryan was born in Dublin, Ireland. He is considered something of a socialist. He may win in Oshawa. We shall see. But the Liberals need to focus not on Oshawa, but on Ajax—Pickering.
Showing posts with label 2003 Ontario Election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2003 Ontario Election. Show all posts
Sunday, September 23, 2007
Saturday, September 1, 2007
Bad news about Bob Rae, plus some provincial Liberal candidates
I have some bad news. Bob Rae has a cold and therefore his heart surgery has been delayed. No new date has been set. My concern is that Rae will still be recovering and unable to campaign when Harper calls the Toronto Centre by-election.
Almost all previously defeated Liberal candidates in the 2003 Ontario election and subsequent Ontario provincial by-elections are not running in the 2007 Ontario election. The only exceptions I know of are Helena Jaczek (general election), Sylvia Watson (Parkdale—High Park by-election), and Laura Albanese (York South—Weston by-election). All these candidates have some, but not a certain, chance of winning. Jaczek only narrowly lost to Frank Klees in Oak Ridges, but the redistributed results from the 2003 election in Oak Ridges—Markham has the Tories winning by a 9 point margin. At the same time, Oak Ridges—Markham has twice gone Liberal federally. So Helena could take it in the context of a strong Liberal majority win province-wide. Parkdale—High Park and York South—Weston could also flip back to the Liberals in the case of a large Liberal majority government.
Sylvia Watson is running again in Parkdale—High Park. She chose to relinquish her city council seat after losing last year’s by-election. Watson probably withdrew from the municipal race as soon as she entered the by-election race to avoid criticism of hedging her bets on two races. She also promised not to re-enter the municipal race should she lose the by-election. When she lost the by-election, she kept her word. I wish Watson had won the by-election. I was personally involved in her campaign. I may not agree with actual winning candidate Cheri Di Novo’s economic policies, but I do agree wholeheartedly with her liberal views on homosexuality. I will discuss this more in a future blog. Although Sylvia Watson could have technically re-entered the municipal race, it would have been difficult because her withdrawal attracted a large field of candidates vying to replace her. Her re-entry into the municipal race would have made the race extra crowded and may have posed a significant challenge to her re-election prospects. On council, Watson was a centrist who although not a steadfast David Miller ally, often voted for Miller’s policies. It is for this reason that I am perplexed to see this written about Sylvia Watson by Toronto politics commentator David Nickle (http://www.insidetoronto.ca/news/Villager/Column/article/28047):
“Even those who might have at other times run for Progressive Conservatives, like the fiscally conservative Sylvia Watson, didn't dare fly the Tory flag in this town when she took a shot at Parkdale-High Park in a byelection last year for the Liberals.”
Sylvia seems pretty Liberal to me. She was more fiscally responsible than fiscally conservative, and I don’t think she would have run for the Harris Tories. I see no evidence that Sylvia even contemplated running for the Tories.
On a closely related note, provincial affairs columnist Eric Dowd wrote this (http://www.inbusinesswindsor.com/2007Issues/August2007/queenspark.pdf):
“The Conservatives hoped to have Bas Balkissoon, a cost-conscious municipal councilor who blew whistles on waste, run for them in a by-election in Toronto and talked to him about it, but Balkissoon opted to run for the then more secure Liberals and held the riding comfortably. Another respected Toronto councilor, Sylvia Watson, as well as TV reporter Ben Chin and news anchor Laura Albanese, viewed as star catches because everyone knows their faces, also opted to run for the Liberals in by elections, although all three lost when the New Democrats surprisingly revived.”
I’m no insider, but I’d venture to guess Balkissoon turned the Tories down not only because it was easier to win in Scarborough—Rouge River as a Liberal, but equally because Balkissoon is a Liberal at heart. I also hope Dowd is not implying that Watson, Chin, and Albanese would have run for the Tories in other circumstances. There is such a thing as simply being a Liberal, regardless of how well that party happens to be doing at any given moment. That is what most Liberals are like. The David Emersons of the world are few and far between.
Almost all previously defeated Liberal candidates in the 2003 Ontario election and subsequent Ontario provincial by-elections are not running in the 2007 Ontario election. The only exceptions I know of are Helena Jaczek (general election), Sylvia Watson (Parkdale—High Park by-election), and Laura Albanese (York South—Weston by-election). All these candidates have some, but not a certain, chance of winning. Jaczek only narrowly lost to Frank Klees in Oak Ridges, but the redistributed results from the 2003 election in Oak Ridges—Markham has the Tories winning by a 9 point margin. At the same time, Oak Ridges—Markham has twice gone Liberal federally. So Helena could take it in the context of a strong Liberal majority win province-wide. Parkdale—High Park and York South—Weston could also flip back to the Liberals in the case of a large Liberal majority government.
Sylvia Watson is running again in Parkdale—High Park. She chose to relinquish her city council seat after losing last year’s by-election. Watson probably withdrew from the municipal race as soon as she entered the by-election race to avoid criticism of hedging her bets on two races. She also promised not to re-enter the municipal race should she lose the by-election. When she lost the by-election, she kept her word. I wish Watson had won the by-election. I was personally involved in her campaign. I may not agree with actual winning candidate Cheri Di Novo’s economic policies, but I do agree wholeheartedly with her liberal views on homosexuality. I will discuss this more in a future blog. Although Sylvia Watson could have technically re-entered the municipal race, it would have been difficult because her withdrawal attracted a large field of candidates vying to replace her. Her re-entry into the municipal race would have made the race extra crowded and may have posed a significant challenge to her re-election prospects. On council, Watson was a centrist who although not a steadfast David Miller ally, often voted for Miller’s policies. It is for this reason that I am perplexed to see this written about Sylvia Watson by Toronto politics commentator David Nickle (http://www.insidetoronto.ca/news/Villager/Column/article/28047):
“Even those who might have at other times run for Progressive Conservatives, like the fiscally conservative Sylvia Watson, didn't dare fly the Tory flag in this town when she took a shot at Parkdale-High Park in a byelection last year for the Liberals.”
Sylvia seems pretty Liberal to me. She was more fiscally responsible than fiscally conservative, and I don’t think she would have run for the Harris Tories. I see no evidence that Sylvia even contemplated running for the Tories.
On a closely related note, provincial affairs columnist Eric Dowd wrote this (http://www.inbusinesswindsor.com/2007Issues/August2007/queenspark.pdf):
“The Conservatives hoped to have Bas Balkissoon, a cost-conscious municipal councilor who blew whistles on waste, run for them in a by-election in Toronto and talked to him about it, but Balkissoon opted to run for the then more secure Liberals and held the riding comfortably. Another respected Toronto councilor, Sylvia Watson, as well as TV reporter Ben Chin and news anchor Laura Albanese, viewed as star catches because everyone knows their faces, also opted to run for the Liberals in by elections, although all three lost when the New Democrats surprisingly revived.”
I’m no insider, but I’d venture to guess Balkissoon turned the Tories down not only because it was easier to win in Scarborough—Rouge River as a Liberal, but equally because Balkissoon is a Liberal at heart. I also hope Dowd is not implying that Watson, Chin, and Albanese would have run for the Tories in other circumstances. There is such a thing as simply being a Liberal, regardless of how well that party happens to be doing at any given moment. That is what most Liberals are like. The David Emersons of the world are few and far between.
Sault Ste. Marie
For some reason, Milton Chan from www.electionprediction.com has changed his prediction in the riding of Sault Ste. Marie from Liberal to Too Close for the upcoming provincial election. I’m not sure why he did this. He seemed confident of a Liberal win before and I do not know what made him change it. The incumbent Liberal candidate is by far the highest profile candidate. Neither the Tories nor the NDP have chosen candidates with high name recognition. To boot, Sault Ste. Marie has a popular Liberal incumbent in David Orazietti. Orazietti defeated popular 13 year NDP incumbent Tony Martin by 8000 votes in the 2003 election. He won 57% to Martin’s 32%. In an election where the percentages for the NDP went up in most ridings, this was quite a downturn in NDP support. This was an impressive victory. Tony Martin went on to win the federal Sault Ste. Marie by 700 votes. In the 2006 election when most narrowly elected NDP incumbents won by larger margins, Martin increased his margin to only 2000 votes with the Liberals an impressive second. In 2004, I heard that the Liberals actually won the City of Sault Ste. Marie and that it was the newly added rural portion that put Martin over the top. So even at the federal level Sault Ste. Marie is only a marginal NDP seat. It is for this reason that I think for Sault. Ste. Marie to go NDP provincially, it would take a signficant Liberal meltdown. Thus I don’t understand why Milton Chan suddenly changed the riding to Too Close.
Thursday, July 5, 2007
Another Ontario provincial poll
The Ontario provincial Liberals are still slightly ahead according to the latest Ipsos-Reid poll conducted during the second half of June. Based on the poll numbers, it would suggest that the release of the Conservative platform did not give the Tories a boost, perhaps because it was vague and contained the controversial religious school funding proposal. The poll result showed the Tories drop one point, and the Liberals drop two points which seemingly moved to the Greens. The result is a 3 point lead for the Liberals, 39% to 36%. Noticeable is that the Tories are hardly any higher than their 2003 election finish. If these numbers held on election day the Tories would pick up seats but only because of a vote split due to a surge in third party support. Although the article wants again to talk about a possible minority government, I have again put the numbers into an election forecaster and found it predicting a narrow Liberal majority government. This proves that the supposedly “magic” 40% citied both federally and provincially needed for a majority government is an arbitrary number. It is apparently theoretically possible for a majority government to be formed with 39% of the vote, only 3 points ahead of the nearest opposing party. A 39% to 36% result could produce a minority government of course, but a majority government is apparently also quite possible. It is important to remember that a large spread between the top two parties in a first-past-the-post general election is not needed for a majority government. For example, in the 1999 election the Tories beat the Liberals in the province overall by just 5%. Yet this produced a moderately large majority government. A party winning a majority government yet beating its nearest competitor by only 3% in the popular vote is entirely possible. It is true that the chances of a minority government in Ontario is the most possible it has been since the 1985 election (which did produce a minority government in the end), but at this point such an outcome is far from certain. The media who keeps bringing up the strong possibility of a minority government may be jumping to conclusions. The Liberals should not be counted out yet, but nor should the PCs.
There is little point at looking at the regional breakdowns given for the poll, because I believe the sample size is too small for them to mean anything. For the poll to show only a single point lead for the Liberals in the GTA, the GTA surely has to include places like Burlington, Oakville, and maybe even Hamilton. Otherwise that regional breakdown wouldn’t make sense. What makes even less sense is the result outside Toronto. Supposedly, according to the poll, the Liberals hold a stronger 39% to 34% lead outside the Toronto area. I suppose this is believable, but only if very conservative regions of the GTA held great sway in the poll. I suppose it is possible that the poll may have over-sampled GTA places such as Whitby, Oakville, Oshawa, and Burlington. If so than the Liberals would in reality have a larger province-wide lead than the poll indicated. The strangest result is in central Ontario, which gives the Liberals a 5 point lead of 41% to 36%. If this result were actually true I’d say the Liberals have a very strong chance of re-election. Central Ontario includes the very Conservative Haliburton/ Kawartha Lakes electoral district, the county of Northumberland (The Northumberland-Quinte West riding is a key swing riding that usually goes to the party who wins the election both federally and provincially), the key bellwether riding of Peterborough, as well as Conservative Simcoe County. Although the region contains a couple swing ridings, most parts of this region are rock solid Conservative and therefore I would find a lead of 41 to 36 for the Liberals to be highly questionable, yet very good news for the Liberals if true. At the very least if that result is true it means the Liberals would hold Peterborough and Northumberland-Quinte West. And the Liberals would be hard pressed to lose the election if those two ridings are in their column. However, the low sample size makes me have to take that Central Ontario result with a grain of salt.
There is little point at looking at the regional breakdowns given for the poll, because I believe the sample size is too small for them to mean anything. For the poll to show only a single point lead for the Liberals in the GTA, the GTA surely has to include places like Burlington, Oakville, and maybe even Hamilton. Otherwise that regional breakdown wouldn’t make sense. What makes even less sense is the result outside Toronto. Supposedly, according to the poll, the Liberals hold a stronger 39% to 34% lead outside the Toronto area. I suppose this is believable, but only if very conservative regions of the GTA held great sway in the poll. I suppose it is possible that the poll may have over-sampled GTA places such as Whitby, Oakville, Oshawa, and Burlington. If so than the Liberals would in reality have a larger province-wide lead than the poll indicated. The strangest result is in central Ontario, which gives the Liberals a 5 point lead of 41% to 36%. If this result were actually true I’d say the Liberals have a very strong chance of re-election. Central Ontario includes the very Conservative Haliburton/ Kawartha Lakes electoral district, the county of Northumberland (The Northumberland-Quinte West riding is a key swing riding that usually goes to the party who wins the election both federally and provincially), the key bellwether riding of Peterborough, as well as Conservative Simcoe County. Although the region contains a couple swing ridings, most parts of this region are rock solid Conservative and therefore I would find a lead of 41 to 36 for the Liberals to be highly questionable, yet very good news for the Liberals if true. At the very least if that result is true it means the Liberals would hold Peterborough and Northumberland-Quinte West. And the Liberals would be hard pressed to lose the election if those two ridings are in their column. However, the low sample size makes me have to take that Central Ontario result with a grain of salt.
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