There will be 3 provincial by-elections in Quebec on May 12th. One of these is in the riding of Hull. I would be incredibly surprised if any party other than the Liberal Party won the by-election in Hull. I interestingly found an editorial written by Fred Ryan that discusses the Hull by-election. The editorial says that the share of the vote for the PQ in the Hull riding has been growing(http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/city/story.html?id=e66221f2-93e8-4ad2-9e8f-ccdcf904ab38). However, I looked at election results for Hull and found the opposite to be the case.
Looking at elections from 1994 onwards, we get the following:
1994 election: PQ – 41.12%
1998 election: PQ – 32.02%
2003 election: PQ – 25.47%
2007 election: PQ – 23.93%
As you can see the PQ vote in Hull has actually been dropping.
As a side note, in the 1995 referendum Hull voted about 70% NON and 30% OUI. In the 1992 Charlottetown Accord referendum Hull voted about 44% NON and about 56% OUI. In the 1980 Quebec referendum Hull voted about 67% NON and about 33% OUI.
The PQ remains a sovereigntist party. Hull has twice voted overwhelmingly against Quebec sovereignty. Therefore I personally feel that it is not a good idea for federalist voters in the Hull riding to vote PQ as a protest vote. Electing a PQ MNA, especially one in such a federalist riding, advances the PQ’s sovereignty agenda and I do not believe federalists should vote to advance the sovereigntist agenda even indirectly. I believe that in the circumstances it is best for Hull to have an MNA from the governing party which is the Liberals. This may sound cliché but indeed it would be a government MLA who would best be able to fight for improved health care service in Hull.
The other two by-elections are in ridings that were held by the PQ. One of them was held by former MNA Diane Lemieux who resigned her seat over disagreements with party leader Pauline Marois. The other riding was vacated by former PQ leader Andre Boisclair who chose not to stick around after being forced out of the party leadership. These two ridings are likely to stay PQ. In one of them, former Bloc MP Maka Kotto is running for the PQ. Kotto’s resignation, however, created a vacancy at the federal level that has created a potential by-election. I have long found that Quebec, especially at the provincial level, has more by-elections than other provinces. This seems to be because Quebec politicians, especially those at the National Assembly, are more readily willing to resign their seats than politicians in other provinces. The Charest government is currently doing well right now in terms of popularity and I wish all 3 Liberal candidates the best of luck.
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Quebec provincial by-elections
Sunday, March 23, 2008
By-election results
I have mixed feelings about this week’s by-election results. The Liberals did incredibly well in the Toronto by-elections and increased the Liberal vote percentage in both ridings by several percentage points. The Conservative went down several points in Toronto Centre and went up only .76% in Willowdale. I personally do not consider such a marginal increase in the Tory vote to be very significant. My feelings are mixed however because the by-election results outside Toronto were far worse news for the Liberals. The Liberals lost the Northern Saskatchewan riding badly but I was not surprised by that. I was expecting the Liberals to lose that riding. We badly messed up our chances in that riding by appointing Joan Beatty over the wishes of the powerful and influential David Orchard supporters in the riding. Orchard wanted to run for the Liberals in the by-election and was miffed at being denied a chance to do so. Had Orchard been the candidate it would have still been a tough by-election for the Liberals but the Liberals would have had a fighting chance. Causing so much controversy by appointing Beatty removed any chance the Liberals had in the riding. Now Beatty has no political office and I don’t think she would be allowed run in a by-election for her old Cumberland provincial seat after having already defected from the NDP.
Vancouver Quadra was also bad news for the Liberals. The Liberals held the riding by a mere 151 votes. The Liberal vote in the riding dropped significantly and the Tory vote surged. The Green vote surged as well from low single digits to 13% of the vote. On election night I was shocked when the final two polls came in to see that the Liberal lead had shrunk to 151 votes. Those final two polls must have been won by a landslide by the Tories. Now the Tory central party wants a recount of the results. I highly doubt that a recount would change the outcome but it could delay Liberal Joyce Murray’s ability to take her seat in parliament. From what I read, Tory candidate Deborah Meredith was not consulted on this recount ahead of time and the central party announced the desire for a recount without talking to Meredith first.
So my feelings are very mixed considering the incredibly strong showing for the Tories in the two Western Canadian by-elections. Now there is unfortunately a whole new set of by-elections that the Liberals could always lose. These by-elections would occur if the government does not fall. The riding of Westmount—Ville-Marie is already vacant. It was held by the Liberals and astronaut Mark Garneau is the Liberal candidate. Saint Lambert (south of Montreal) is also already vacant as former Bloc MP Maka Kotto recently resigned his seat to run for the PQ in a provincial by-election. Two more ridings, both held by the Liberals, will become vacant in the near future. Guelph Liberal MP Brenda Chamberlain has announced that she will resign her seat on April 7. Don Valley West Liberal MP John Godfrey has announced that he will resign his seat on July 1 to accept a position as headmaster of a Toronto French school. Guelph is very iffy for the Liberals because the Liberals only won the seat last time with 38% of the vote and only 8% over the Tories. The NDP and Greens had a strong showing in the riding as well. In the recent provincial election, the Greens received a whopping 19.5% of the vote. That means that in a by-election even the Greens could win the riding. The NDP has a star candidate – Thomas King. King is a prominent Metis writer and commentator who talks extensively about Metis and aboriginal issues. The Conservatives have a well known candidate – Guelph City councilor Gloria Kovach. Her ability to be elected to Guelph council could propel her to parliament. The Liberals have a much lesser known lawyer. In a by-election the riding could go to any of the four major parties including the Greens. The Greens are a particularly distinct possibility due to the 19.5% they got in Guelph in the provincial election.
Don Valley West was won by 20% over the Tories with 53% of the vote. Local gay United Church minister Rob Oliphant has been nominated for the Liberals. The Tories have nominated the 2006 candidate John Carmichael. This riding is not as safe for the Liberals as Willowdale and in a by-election it could sadly conceivably go Conservative. The Liberals are very likely to again lose Saint Lambert which they lost in the 2004 election so a Liberal loss there would be no surprise. Sadly none of the upcoming by-elections look like a sure bet for the Liberals.
However, I am still delighted at the wonderful Toronto by-election results. Another bright note is that the Liberals easily won the popular vote of the 4 by-elections put together.
Vancouver Quadra was also bad news for the Liberals. The Liberals held the riding by a mere 151 votes. The Liberal vote in the riding dropped significantly and the Tory vote surged. The Green vote surged as well from low single digits to 13% of the vote. On election night I was shocked when the final two polls came in to see that the Liberal lead had shrunk to 151 votes. Those final two polls must have been won by a landslide by the Tories. Now the Tory central party wants a recount of the results. I highly doubt that a recount would change the outcome but it could delay Liberal Joyce Murray’s ability to take her seat in parliament. From what I read, Tory candidate Deborah Meredith was not consulted on this recount ahead of time and the central party announced the desire for a recount without talking to Meredith first.
So my feelings are very mixed considering the incredibly strong showing for the Tories in the two Western Canadian by-elections. Now there is unfortunately a whole new set of by-elections that the Liberals could always lose. These by-elections would occur if the government does not fall. The riding of Westmount—Ville-Marie is already vacant. It was held by the Liberals and astronaut Mark Garneau is the Liberal candidate. Saint Lambert (south of Montreal) is also already vacant as former Bloc MP Maka Kotto recently resigned his seat to run for the PQ in a provincial by-election. Two more ridings, both held by the Liberals, will become vacant in the near future. Guelph Liberal MP Brenda Chamberlain has announced that she will resign her seat on April 7. Don Valley West Liberal MP John Godfrey has announced that he will resign his seat on July 1 to accept a position as headmaster of a Toronto French school. Guelph is very iffy for the Liberals because the Liberals only won the seat last time with 38% of the vote and only 8% over the Tories. The NDP and Greens had a strong showing in the riding as well. In the recent provincial election, the Greens received a whopping 19.5% of the vote. That means that in a by-election even the Greens could win the riding. The NDP has a star candidate – Thomas King. King is a prominent Metis writer and commentator who talks extensively about Metis and aboriginal issues. The Conservatives have a well known candidate – Guelph City councilor Gloria Kovach. Her ability to be elected to Guelph council could propel her to parliament. The Liberals have a much lesser known lawyer. In a by-election the riding could go to any of the four major parties including the Greens. The Greens are a particularly distinct possibility due to the 19.5% they got in Guelph in the provincial election.
Don Valley West was won by 20% over the Tories with 53% of the vote. Local gay United Church minister Rob Oliphant has been nominated for the Liberals. The Tories have nominated the 2006 candidate John Carmichael. This riding is not as safe for the Liberals as Willowdale and in a by-election it could sadly conceivably go Conservative. The Liberals are very likely to again lose Saint Lambert which they lost in the 2004 election so a Liberal loss there would be no surprise. Sadly none of the upcoming by-elections look like a sure bet for the Liberals.
However, I am still delighted at the wonderful Toronto by-election results. Another bright note is that the Liberals easily won the popular vote of the 4 by-elections put together.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
McGuinty, Dion, and America
I am glad to see that Dion has sided with McGuinty on the more seats for Ontario issue and says that in contrast to what Peter Van Loan said, McGuinty is actually a great man of Confederation.
Barack Obama will probably win the North Carolina primary in the US today. Whether that alone shifts him into front-runner status remains to be seen. My endorsement is Hillary Clinton but I have no problem with Obama becoming President. All that really matters to me is that the Dem nominee can beat the GOP nominee.
Barack Obama will probably win the North Carolina primary in the US today. Whether that alone shifts him into front-runner status remains to be seen. My endorsement is Hillary Clinton but I have no problem with Obama becoming President. All that really matters to me is that the Dem nominee can beat the GOP nominee.
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Prohibative organ donation restrictions
I would like to express my concern over this new Health Canada policy that seeks to exclude sexually active gay men from donating organs. It opens the Harper government up to accusations of being homophobic. Unfortunately it zeroes in on a single group and reinforces stereotypes. STDs spread in the gay community but this is not inherently due to being gay. There are historical and sociological factors to do with promiscuity. In the articles I read about this I was seeing a lot about families being questioned on these things after a donor is dead. This seems to discount the numerous existences of live donors. This new policy is a blanket ban that doctors can only override in exceptional circumstances. Unfortunately this blanket ban endangers the lives of those in need of a donated organ. Here is a hypothetical example. A gay man marries a woman and has a daughter. They then divorce because the man realizes he is gay. The man enters into a monogamous sexual relationship with another man that carries as little risk of HIV as a monogamous heterosexual relationship. The gay man’s daughter suffers kidney failure in both kidneys. After some time of treatment she is in serious need of a transplant. A test is done on the father and there is a requisite DNA match. The doctors set aside this match and look elsewhere because they have much higher preference for a donor who is straight. It is difficult to find a matching donor elsewhere. This girl’s life is being endangered because of a blanket policy that does not apply to the circumstances and is clearly discriminatory. This is the fault of the Harper government through failure to exercise their responsibility. I also wonder whether this regulation is an invasion of provincial jurisdiction. The Supreme Court might actually use its precedence criteria to strike down this regulation when I think about it. Thumbs down again to the Harper government.
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Joan Beatty, David Orchard, Nick Clegg
Dion is appointing Joan Beatty to be the candidate in the Northern Saskatchewan riding federal by-election. I have certain reservations about appointing her over David Orchard but think she is likely to be a better candidate than the disaster that was Jocelyn Coulon. Beatty is an NDP MLA in the Saskatchewan legislature and will have to resign her seat immediately. Because she is running for the federal Liberals, I doubt she would be welcomed back into the provincial NDP to run in the provincial by-election for her seat should she lose the federal by-election. This means that she has no job if she loses the federal by-election. Beatty herself has made some implication that running federally for her is all about being a member of the government. Beatty implies that she did not want to be an opposition member for the next 4 years in the Saskatchewan legislature. Beatty therefore must have believed the Liberals could return to power federally in a shorter time than that and she wanted to be a part of that new governing team. Beatty herself has stated she sees a return to power for the Liberals in the next federal election. I dearly hope that is true.
I would also like to congratulate Nick Clegg on his recent leadership victory that gives him the leadership of the UK Liberal Democrat Party. Under Clegg and his recent predecessors, the Liberal Democrat Party seems clearly to the right of Labour over economic issues. That may have been less so under leader Paddy Ashdown. Prior to the 1997 UK election Tony Blair and Paddy Ashdown held private talks about forming a possible coalition government after the 1997 election. The idea would have been that Labour would have only a narrow majority or only a plurality of seats and thus the Liberal Democrats would be the coalition partner to create a stable coalition government. Once the large size of Labour’s majority in the 1997 election became apparent, the possible coalition did not happen. However, in the 2001 election, Labour and the Liberal Democrats coordinated their campaigns in a way that would inflict the most damage on the Conservatives. On a side note, Labour’s vote in the UK is very efficient. The Tories won more votes within England in the last election, but Labour had significantly more seats. This meant that 35% of the vote translated to 55% of the seats in Parliament and a comfortable majority. Since the fall, that parliamentary majority has been the only thing keeping Labour in power. I hope Labour’s fortunes can improve over the coming years.
I would also like to congratulate Nick Clegg on his recent leadership victory that gives him the leadership of the UK Liberal Democrat Party. Under Clegg and his recent predecessors, the Liberal Democrat Party seems clearly to the right of Labour over economic issues. That may have been less so under leader Paddy Ashdown. Prior to the 1997 UK election Tony Blair and Paddy Ashdown held private talks about forming a possible coalition government after the 1997 election. The idea would have been that Labour would have only a narrow majority or only a plurality of seats and thus the Liberal Democrats would be the coalition partner to create a stable coalition government. Once the large size of Labour’s majority in the 1997 election became apparent, the possible coalition did not happen. However, in the 2001 election, Labour and the Liberal Democrats coordinated their campaigns in a way that would inflict the most damage on the Conservatives. On a side note, Labour’s vote in the UK is very efficient. The Tories won more votes within England in the last election, but Labour had significantly more seats. This meant that 35% of the vote translated to 55% of the seats in Parliament and a comfortable majority. Since the fall, that parliamentary majority has been the only thing keeping Labour in power. I hope Labour’s fortunes can improve over the coming years.
Monday, December 31, 2007
Happy New Year!
I would just like to wish the entire world a happy new year! This greeting encompasses my political opponents. Happy new year to everyone including my political opponents. All the best to everyone in 2008!
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Larry O'Brien and Jim Jones
Recently, Ottawa Mayor Larry O’Brien was charged by the OPP with attempted bribery. O’Brien allegedly attempted to bribe a rival candidate to drop out of the mayoral race in exchange for certain items – one of which was allegedly an appointment to the National Parole Board of Canada, to be done by the Conservative government. This allegation got federal Environment Minister John Baird caught up in the controversy. Several Liberals called for Baird’s resignation in Question Period before the holidays. However, the OPP has said they no longer have any investigative interest in Baird. Baird has also always been clear that no such appointment was ever discussed with anyone. I am a Liberal, but I am willing to give Baird the benefit of the doubt. Because O’Brien is innocent until proven guilty, I feel he may stay on as mayor as long as he is not found guilty. If found guilty, he may feel compelled to resign. In such a case he may be required to resign depending on the severity of his sentence. If O’Brien resigns in 2008, there is still time for a by-election for the Ottawa mayoralty. If there is a by-election, I would want the runner-up from the 2006 race, Alex Munter, to run. I’d expect him to be the frontrunner in such a race unless one of the city councilors was to run. If councilors were to run in a by-election, it would give them a unique opportunity to run for mayor without putting their council seats on the line. In a regular election, councilors cannot run simultaneously for council and mayor. But at the same time councilors are not required to resign their existing council positions to run for mayor. In a mayoral by-election, councilors could retain their seats while running and only have to give up their council seats if elected mayor.
Mentioning this topic compels me to mention a slightly similar situation that has occurred in my home town of Markham, Ontario. Markham Regional Councilor Jim Jones pled guilty to assault on November 22 for an assault that occurred in February of this year. Mr. Jones grabbed a maid at a hotel in Niagara-on-the-Lake where he was staying for a Town Council retreat. Jones was lying on his bed. Jones said “Kiss me” to the maid and grabbed her without permission. The maid left the room shocked and called police. The police came and charged Jones with sexual assault. The charge was later downgraded to regular assault which Jones pled guilty to. Jones states that what he did was a major error in judgment. Jones was given a year’s worth of probation and several hours of community service as a sentence. Markham Town Council in response to Jones’ conviction requested Jones’ resignation as a councilor. Jones refused to resign. Town Council did however accept Jones’ resignation as Markham Deputy Mayor. The Town also stripped Jones of all committee chairmanships. The Town asked the Regional Council to take similar disciplinary action. Indications are that some councilors are now going to feel uncomfortable working with Jones in light of his conviction. Markham now has no Deputy Mayor but Regional Councilor Jack Heath stands to become Deputy Mayor because he received the second most number of votes in the 2006 Regional Council election. Since Jones was innocent until proven guilty, the Town did not request his resignation until after he was convicted. I believe that was the proper way to go about it. In this day and age, unwanted kissing and grabbing are serious matters. Jones should consider what is best and resign if he feels that his continued presence on council will make things too awkward.
I feel that Jones conviction has essentially ended Jones political career. In the 2010 election, I do not think Jones could get the most number of votes for Regional Council let alone the fourth most number of votes for the 4 spot election. But our political system allows Jones to continue in office until December 2010. He can then choose to not run for re-election if he wants to avoid a likely defeat. Whether he runs again or not, he will be eligible for a severance package in either defeat or retirement.
In conclusion, I hold out hope that Alex Munter or someone progressive like him can become the next Mayor of Ottawa.
Mentioning this topic compels me to mention a slightly similar situation that has occurred in my home town of Markham, Ontario. Markham Regional Councilor Jim Jones pled guilty to assault on November 22 for an assault that occurred in February of this year. Mr. Jones grabbed a maid at a hotel in Niagara-on-the-Lake where he was staying for a Town Council retreat. Jones was lying on his bed. Jones said “Kiss me” to the maid and grabbed her without permission. The maid left the room shocked and called police. The police came and charged Jones with sexual assault. The charge was later downgraded to regular assault which Jones pled guilty to. Jones states that what he did was a major error in judgment. Jones was given a year’s worth of probation and several hours of community service as a sentence. Markham Town Council in response to Jones’ conviction requested Jones’ resignation as a councilor. Jones refused to resign. Town Council did however accept Jones’ resignation as Markham Deputy Mayor. The Town also stripped Jones of all committee chairmanships. The Town asked the Regional Council to take similar disciplinary action. Indications are that some councilors are now going to feel uncomfortable working with Jones in light of his conviction. Markham now has no Deputy Mayor but Regional Councilor Jack Heath stands to become Deputy Mayor because he received the second most number of votes in the 2006 Regional Council election. Since Jones was innocent until proven guilty, the Town did not request his resignation until after he was convicted. I believe that was the proper way to go about it. In this day and age, unwanted kissing and grabbing are serious matters. Jones should consider what is best and resign if he feels that his continued presence on council will make things too awkward.
I feel that Jones conviction has essentially ended Jones political career. In the 2010 election, I do not think Jones could get the most number of votes for Regional Council let alone the fourth most number of votes for the 4 spot election. But our political system allows Jones to continue in office until December 2010. He can then choose to not run for re-election if he wants to avoid a likely defeat. Whether he runs again or not, he will be eligible for a severance package in either defeat or retirement.
In conclusion, I hold out hope that Alex Munter or someone progressive like him can become the next Mayor of Ottawa.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)